· 6% of Ohio’s precincts each have virtually zero chance (less than one in 15,000) of occurrin due to sampling error, given their Kerry official vote count.2 Even if the “within precinct discrepancy” (WPD) is adjusted for all the precincts to remove any possible effect due to Kerry voters completing more exit polls, the probability of obtaining Ohio’s exit poll discrepancies are virtually impossible.
· Over 40% of Ohio’s polled precincts have discrepancies having less than a 5% chance of occurring, given the official vote counts.4 The expected number of such precincts in a sample of 49 precincts would be five such precincts, not the 20 found.
· Ohio's exit poll discrepancies, when plotted against precinct exit poll share show a pattern that is consistent with vote miscounts that benefited Bush, and
· The pattern of Ohio's exit poll discrepancies cannot be explained by random sampling error or partisan exit poll completion rate differences.
Via Buzzflash.
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